I have a background in commercial and residential construction and restoration. That experience has served me well over the years. After active duty, I chose that path instead of college.
Along the way, doors opened that I never imagined possible, and I believe YHWH has guided me through every step of the journey. Proverbs 3:5–6
Fast-forward twenty years after leaving active duty, and I found myself working at the headquarters of a Fortune 50 company, managing a quarter-billion dollars in national-account sales across the construction and restoration industries—and the C-suite relationships that came with it.
One day in 2015, as I walked past my VP’s office, he called me in and asked, out of the blue:
“Can you create a CAT Event presentation and some type of spreadsheet that covers catastrophic events?”
I answered, “I can. It’ll take me a hot minute, and I’ll also have to include potential Black Swan events.”
At that point, the company—which will remain nameless—was primarily concerned with flooding, hurricanes, wildfires, and tornadoes. Those were the kinds of events we typically helped customers recover from. So I compiled an early playbook covering the scenarios I believed could blindside our organization. Looking back, I’m glad I was given that assignment. It helped shape a point I want to make here: regardless of which visible or invisible antagonist tries to ruin your day, preparedness matters before an event occurs.
Source: Climate Central, U.S. 2025 Billion-Dollar Weather & Climate Disasters. Map depicting the approximate locations of 23-billion-dollar weather and climate disasters across the United States from January–December 2025.
Credit: © Climate Central. Reproduced for educational and informational purposes. All rights remain with the original copyright holder. Tertiary Prepper™ is not affiliated with or endorsed by Climate Central.
WHAT IS A BLACK SWAN EVENT?
The term *Black Swan*, developed by author and risk analyst Nassim Nicholas Taleb, describes a rare, high-impact event that falls outside normal expectations and is difficult to predict reliably beforehand.
Taleb identifies three defining characteristics of a Black Swan:
- It is an outlier. Based on what was previously known or routinely observed, there is little in the historical record that convincingly points toward the event occurring.
- It has an extreme impact. Once it occurs, its consequences can be enormous, potentially affecting economies, governments, infrastructure, communities, industries, or individual lives.
- It becomes explainable after it happens. Human beings have a strong tendency to construct explanations afterward that make the event appear as though it should have been foreseeable. Taleb describes this as retrospective predictability—the event seems much easier to explain after it has already occurred than it was to predict beforehand.
Taleb summarizes these characteristics as “rarity, extreme impact, and retrospective (though not prospective) predictability.” Fooled by Randomness
That distinction matters. A Black Swan is not simply another name for a severe disaster. Hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, wars, and power failures can be catastrophic, but many are recurring, foreseeable, or already considered in contingency plans. An event can be an extreme emergency without meeting Taleb’s more specific definition of a Black Swan.
I asked ChatGPT to help visualize primary, secondary, and tertiary categories of threats that could have local, regional, or national impacts. The accompanying graphic is an illustrative preparedness framework—not an exhaustive list, a probability ranking, or a formal application of Taleb’s definition. It ranges from events routinely monitored with established response protocols to less familiar scenarios that may require more improvised responses.
WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT IN PREPAREDNESS:
If there’s one thing I’ve learned about catastrophic events, it’s that they rarely stay neatly contained. A hurricane, for example, can trigger flash flooding, mudslides, storm surge, power outages, and dam or levee failures. The value of the Black Swan concept in preparedness isn’t that we can predict every event. It’s recognizing that some surprises cannot be predicted reliably—and developing the mental resilience, adaptability, situational awareness, skills, and redundancies to function when the unexpected happens.
We’ve seen wars, pandemics, famines, natural disasters, and failures of critical infrastructure. Sometimes these events overlap, and sometimes one sets off another. But there is a difference between an isolated catastrophe and a succession of crises that compounds until communities—and potentially entire nations—struggle to recover before the next blow arrives. That distinction is what brings me to a different kind of writing: the Book of Revelation.
THE BOOK OF REVELATION:
Regardless of your faith or views on eschatology, the Book of Revelation is among the most recognizable prophetic writings in the Bible. In my interpretation, it depicts one cascading catastrophe after another—from war, famine, and plague to imagery often associated with cosmic upheaval. The scale and succession of these events are central to the passage’s impact. I see parallels between those cascading consequences and the secondary and tertiary effects discussed earlier, although that is a theological interpretation rather than a technical classification of Black Swan events.
I understand that events described in Scripture are not necessarily unforeseeable in the strict sense Taleb intended. My comparison concerns their extraordinary scale and cascading consequences—not a technical classification of biblical prophecy. I don’t claim to know when or precisely how these passages will (if ever in our lifetimes) unfold. I simply encourage you to read Revelation, particularly chapters 6–16 and consider what Scripture says.
So, why do I mention this?
As members of the preparedness community, we can accumulate gear, skills, physical ability, and intestinal fortitude. But I believe spiritual resilience matters, too. Luke 21:10–28. From my faith perspective, Revelation describes profound upheaval, and I believe its message should encourage readiness rather than fear. I write these articles to offer hope—to remind you that there is still time to prepare and that you’ve got this.
I’m not warning you to buy another backpack, stockpile thirty years of food, or spend your life worrying about tomorrow. I’m asking you to consider what Scripture says, examine all aspects of your readiness—physical, mental, AND spiritual, and recognize that as of today, you still have time. My hope isn’t that you leave this article thinking about Tertiary Prepper. It’s that you open your Bible and turn toward YHWH and YESHUA HAMASHIACH. That is the point I most want to leave with you.
CONCLUSION:
Other than what I believe has been written in the Bible, I don’t know what is coming. And you know what? I’m okay with that. I personally don’t have years of food in a root cellar, a bunker, two bug-out trucks, or a zombie kit. I’m simply an Army veteran who decided long ago to prepare for unforeseen events without living in fear. I’m not perfect, and I don’t have it all figured out. But I do pay attention to what’s happening around me. Ezekiel 3:17
Whatever the future holds, I pray that you stand calmly, patiently, and firmly in faith through any unexpected event that may come. Godspeed and God bless!
Sgt. Silverman
Source credit: Nassim Nicholas Taleb, The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable (Random House, 2007; expanded second edition, 2010). Taleb examines uncertainty, probability, risk, and the disproportionate influence of rare, high-impact events. See also Fooled by Randomness. [EDITOR NOTE: Verify that the quotation and its cited book match the original source before publication.]
Nassim Nicholas Taleb — The Black Swan source material
DISCLAIMER:
This article is provided for educational and informational purposes only. It reflects the author’s personal experience, opinions, faith perspective, and general preparedness concepts; it is not a prediction of future events or a substitute for professional emergency-management, safety, financial, or other individualized advice. Assess your own circumstances, consult qualified professionals when appropriate, and follow current guidance from relevant authorities.
COPYRIGHT NOTICE
© 2026 Sgt. Silverman / Tertiary Prepper. All Rights Reserved.
This article and all original works published under the pseudonym Sgt. Silverman are the exclusive intellectual property of the author. No portion of this publication may be reproduced, distributed, transmitted, republished, copied, or adapted in any form or by any means without the prior written permission of the author or publisher.
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AI-Assisted Visuals & Examples
If you’ve been reading Tertiary Prepper for any length of time, you’ve probably noticed charts, graphs, calculations, and visuals that explain preparedness concepts in ways you don’t normally see discussed. Many of those examples were created with the assistance of artificial intelligence—but only after I gave it very specific instructions on what I wanted to teach.
I don’t use AI to create my preparedness philosophy. I use it to help visualize it.
Many of the tertiary concepts discussed throughout this magazine—such as Sustainment Foraging, Pressure Testing, The Autonomous Recovery Kit (ARK), The Quiet Food Equation, and other original frameworks—are my own ideas and observations. AI simply helps me communicate those concepts through charts, graphics, and examples that make them easier to understand.
Preparedness is rarely black and white. There are very few absolute right or wrong answers—only different experiences, different priorities, and different ways of solving the same problem. My hope is that these articles simply give us another reason to sit around the campfire, challenge conventional thinking, and ponder practical solutions together.
